Enrich Your Future 04: Why Is Persistent Outperformance So Hard to Find?
My Worst Investment Ever Podcast
Challenges in Identifying Market Bubbles and Timing Investment Decisions
This chapter delves into the complexity of spotting market bubbles and making timely investment decisions, emphasizing the significance of expected returns and the risks associated with market timing. The speaker recommends concentrating on asset allocation, regular rebalancing, and maintaining readiness for unforeseen circumstances that may trigger market downturns.
In this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry’s new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing. In this series, they discuss Chapter 04: Why Is Persistent Outperformance So Hard to Find?
LEARNING: Focus on building a robust asset allocation plan, regularly rebalancing it, and stick with it.
“Investors should just build an asset allocation plan, rebalance, and stick with it. So, when there’s a bubble, take advantage of it and sell some stock high to buy those that haven’t performed.”
Larry Swedroe
In this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry’s new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing. The book is a collection of stories that Larry has developed over the 30 years or so that he’s been trying to help investors. Larry is the head of financial and economic research at Buckingham Wealth Partners. You can learn more about Larry’s Worst Investment Ever story on Ep645: Beware of Idiosyncratic Risks.
Larry deeply understands the world of academic research and investing, especially risk. Today, Andrew and Larry discuss Chapter 04: Why Is Persistent Outperformance So Hard to Find?
Chapter 04: Why Is Persistent Outperformance So Hard to Find?
In this chapter, Larry explains why persistent outperformance beyond the randomly expected is so hard to find.
According to Larry, the equivalent of the Holy Grail is finding the formula that allows many investors to time the market successfully. For others, it is finding the fund manager who can exploit market mispricings by buying undervalued stocks and perhaps shorting overvalued ones. However, markets are very highly efficient. An efficient market means that the price is the best estimate investors have of the right price. They don’t know the right price until after the fact.
The efficiency of the markets and the evidence of the effects of scale on trading costs explain why persistent outperformance beyond the randomly expected is so hard to find. Thus, the search by investors for persistent outperformance is likely to prove as successful as Sir Galahad’s search for the Holy Grail.
Larry adds that the only place we find the persistence of performance (beyond that which we would randomly expect) is at the very bottom—poorly performing funds tend to repeat. And the persistence of poor performance is not due to poor stock selection. Instead, it is due to high expenses.
The efficient market hypothesis
Larry says the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) explains why all investors should expect a lack of persistence. It states that it is only by random good luck that a fund can persistently outperform after the expenses of its efforts. But there is also a practical reason for the lack of persistence: Successful active management sows the seeds of its own destruction.
Just as the EMH explains why investors cannot use publicly available information to beat the market (because all investors have access to that information, and it is therefore already embedded in prices), the same is true of active managers. Investors should not expect to outperform the market by using publicly available information to select active managers. Any excess return will go to the active manager (in the form of higher expenses).
Instead of fruitlessly chasing outperformance, Larry advocates for a more strategic approach. He advises investors to focus on building a robust asset allocation plan, regularly rebalancing it, and, most importantly, sticking with it. This approach helps investors take advantage of market bubbles and ensures they are well-positioned to buy stocks that haven’t performed well, thereby promoting a more balanced and sustainable investment strategy.
Further reading
- Amit Goyal and Sunil Wahal, “The Selection and Termination of Investment Management Firms by Plan Sponsors,” Journal of Finance (July 2008).
- Jonathan B. Berk, “Five Myths of Active Portfolio Management.”
- Roger Edelen, Richard Evans, and Gregory B. Kadlec, “Scale Effects in Mutual Fund performance: The Role of Trading Costs,” March 17, 2007.
Did you miss out on the previous chapters? Check them out:
- Enrich Your Future 01: The Determinants of the Risk and Return of Stocks and Bonds
- Enrich Your Future 02: How Markets Set Prices
- Enrich Your Future 03: Persistence of Performance: Athletes Versus Investment Managers
About Larry Swedroe
Larry Swedroe is head of financial and economic research at Buckingham Wealth Partners. Since joining the firm in 1996, Larry has spent his time, talent, and energy educating investors on the benefits of evidence-based investing with an enthusiasm few can match.
Larry was among the first authors to publish a book that explained the science of investing in layman’s terms, “The Only Guide to a Winning Investment Strategy You’ll Ever Need.” He has authored or co-authored 18 books.
Larry’s dedication to helping others has made him a sought-after national speaker. He has made appearances on national television on various outlets.
Larry is a prolific writer, regularly contributing to multiple outlets, including AlphaArchitect, Advisor Perspectives, and Wealth Management.
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Connect with Larry Swedroe
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- How to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock Market
- My Worst Investment Ever
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- Transform Your Business with Dr.Deming’s 14 Points
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