Joe Carlsmith joins the podcast to discuss how we change our minds about AI risk, gut feelings versus abstract models, and what to do if transformative AI is coming soon. You can read more about Joe's work at https://joecarlsmith.com. Timestamps: 00:00 Predictable updating on AI risk 07:27 Abstract models versus gut feelings 22:06 How Joe began believing in AI risk 29:06 Is AI risk falsifiable? 35:39 Types of skepticisms about AI risk 44:51 Are we fundamentally confused? 53:35 Becoming alienated from ourselves? 1:00:12 What will change people's minds? 1:12:34 Outline of different futures 1:20:43 Humanity losing touch with reality 1:27:14 Can we understand AI sentience? 1:36:31 Distinguishing real from fake sentience 1:39:54 AI doomer epistemology 1:45:23 AI benchmarks versus real-world AI 1:53:00 AI improving AI research and development 2:01:08 What if transformative AI comes soon? 2:07:21 AI safety if transformative AI comes soon 2:16:52 AI systems interpreting other AI systems 2:19:38 Philosophy and transformative AI Social Media Links: ➡️ WEBSITE: https://futureoflife.org ➡️ TWITTER: https://twitter.com/FLIxrisk ➡️ INSTAGRAM: https://www.instagram.com/futureoflifeinstitute/ ➡️ META: https://www.facebook.com/futureoflifeinstitute ➡️ LINKEDIN: https://www.linkedin.com/company/future-of-life-institute/