Avoid Certainty in Investing

In this conversation, Howard Marks shares his insights on investment strategies, the nature of risk, and the impact of market cycles. He discusses the origin of his company, Oak Tree, and elaborates on the concept of risk, emphasizing that it is subjective and tied to the possibility of undesirable outcomes. Marks also explores the upside of bubbles in technology, the implications of Brexit on the UK economy, and the current state of private credit. He provides advice on portfolio structuring, the importance of incentives in organizations, and personal reflections on success and happiness.

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Chapters

00:00 The Origin of Oak Tree Capital

03:19 Understanding Risk

07:23 The Upside of Bubbles

11:29 Market Dynamics and the S&P 500

14:25 Microcap Stocks and Market Cycles

19:23 The Impact of Brexit on the UK Economy

22:50 Risks in Private Credit

25:41 Catching Falling Knives in Investing

31:35 Navigating Financial Crises

34:44 Investment Philosophy and Risk Management

39:03 Asset Allocation Strategies

41:49 Personal Insights and Success Factors

46:01 Quality of Life and Enjoyment

49:50 Building Effective Organizations

54:41 Reflections on Happiness and Legacy

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