Navigating Forecasting Complexity

This chapter explores the intricate world of binary forecasting and its inherent limitations, particularly in high-stakes scenarios like elections and pandemic growth rates. It critiques traditional risk models and emphasizes the importance of understanding probability as a multifaceted system, touching on concepts like super forecasting and value at risk. Through historical examples, the discussion reveals the complexities of predicting outcomes and the often misleading perceptions of risk in both finance and policymaking.