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Ep267 - Daniel Kahneman | Thinking, Fast and Slow

Talks at Google

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How to Develop Intuitions in Stock Picking and Political Forecasters

Political forecasters are no better than a dog throwing monkey in long term predictions. Poor formulas can be generated on the basis of experience, and they will do a better job than individual du ok. We quite frequently have intuitions that are false. And they come up and come to mind, and they are subjectively undistinguishable from expert intuition. The world is probably not predictable. When there are marginal situations where there is some predictability,. But poor formulas do better than individuals.

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