2min chapter

People I (Mostly) Admire cover image

50. Edward Miguel on Collecting Economic Data by Canoe and Correlating Conflict with Rainfall

People I (Mostly) Admire

CHAPTER

Are the Climate Models Predicting the Future of Africa?

Climate models are more precise and confident about temperature increase, but model to model, there is more variability in terms of their predictions for rainfall. But when we do that, the models do predict with some degree of precision that there will be a large increase in conflict risk over the next 50 years in sub saheran africa,. driven by the temperature increase. The last 20 to 25 years have been a period that's been pretty good in terms of economic development in most african countries.

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