Why Equating Adaptation with Welfare Misleads

Soft denialism is climate denialism that denies not the reality of climate change, but rather its importance.

In this podcast, I touch on the TrumpII-era resurgence of soft denialism, Bill Gates’ misguided climate memo, and the Atlantic’s claim that “climate adaptation is indistinguishable from efforts to improve human welfare.”

Along the way, I explain why failing to understand the climate crisis as a discontinuity in human affairs means failing to understand it at all.

The recently-published 2025 State of the Climate Report: a planet on the brink can be found here.

A news item that came across my desk after I recorded this, but that reinforces my point: Iceland deems possible Atlantic current collapse a security risk.

“Iceland has designated the potential collapse of a major Atlantic Ocean current system a national security concern and an existential threat, enabling its government to strategize for worst-case scenarios, the country’s climate minister told Reuters.

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, or AMOC, current brings warm water from the tropics northward toward the Arctic, and the flow of warm water helps keep Europe’s winters mild.

But as warming temperatures speed the thaw of Arctic ice and cause meltwater from Greenland’s ice sheet to pour into the ocean, scientists warn the cold freshwater could disrupt the current’s flow. …

Other climate ministries and meteorological offices across Northern Europe told Reuters they are funding more research while weighing possible risks in their climate adaptation plans. Ireland’s weather service said its scientists briefed the country’s prime minister last year and a parliamentary committee last month. Norway’s environment ministry said it was “seeking to deepen our understanding of the issue through new research” before determining whether to classify AMOC as a security risk.”

Remember, we are only at the beginning.

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