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Vol Arb, Rates Vol, Dispersion, & Risk Premium. Part II with Noel Smith

The Derivative

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How to Make the Right Assumptions on Your Trades

There's so many things are unknowable because your assumptions on those trades are that you know that the market basically has a risky on right. So unless you can get the fullness of that information, then your assumptions get weaker and weaker with each you know, whatever percentage of full information you have. It's just like selling it out the money straddle. It works exactly as often as you think it would based on the math. And in a no new news environment with somewhat accurate assumptions on index, I think that Vanna and other strategies can be useful.

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