Modeling, out‑of‑sample testing, and expected hit rate

RJ Bell and Mackenzie Rivers talk NFL week 6 recap. RJ Bell and Mackenzie Rivers open their NFL Week 6 recap discussing the shift in taping schedules and their plan for a concise yet data-rich show. RJ praises Randy Savage’s eccentric genius before diving into the league’s best-performing teams based solely on 2024 play. Using metrics from Kevin Cole and Timo Riske, they note that the Rams, Bills, Colts, and Seahawks rank highly, with Indianapolis emerging as a surprise standout. They debate predictive versus descriptive analytics, how priors affect models, and introduce Pregame.com’s own fourth-quarter win share rankings, which also favor the Colts and Rams. RJ assigns Mackenzie to integrate strength of schedule into future updates. They dissect Lions–Chiefs line movement, Fezzik’s missed pick, and the significance of “strength of victory.” RJ explains how Detroit’s wins came against weak opponents and parallels this with college football’s inflated early records. They analyze game certainty, late-game weighting, and RJ’s proprietary snap-based model emphasizing fourth-quarter importance. They move to Kansas City’s line-of-scrimmage dominance, Mahomes’ improving form, and receiver returns. RJ rails against John Harbaugh while analyzing QB performance rankings, revealing Sam Darnold, Dak Prescott, and Daniel Jones atop a mixed field, with Mayfield outperforming expectations and Lamar Jackson regressing. They debate statistical storytelling and quarterback volatility, mocking “correct” versus “I agree.” Humor gives way to a controversial detour on 1950s domestic “discipline,” which RJ denounces while reflecting on changing norms and street violence metaphors. They pivot back to NFL parity, discussing Chicago’s crime stats, “The Wire,” and the idea that murder cases never close, before jokingly reaffirming moral clarity. Turning to betting insights, RJ praises DraftKings’ live in-game prop tech, critiques vig inflation, and dissects correlation in player props, emphasizing that market movement often rewards early, informed betting. He details Pittsburgh’s market shifts, how sharp bettors exploit soft opens, and how to model usage versus efficiency in props. They analyze Jets–Broncos as an offensive debacle—negative passing yards, coaching confusion, and poor end-of-half decisions—arguing that models must be practical, not just mathematical. They evaluate explosive plays and EPA, cautioning that EPA mislabels context-dependent success, concluding it’s informative but not definitive. Seattle, Rams, and Green Bay lead in net explosives, confirming their high-level play, while Cincinnati, Cleveland, and Dallas lag. RJ praises Seattle’s resurgence, bets them to win the NFC West, and laments San Francisco’s injuries as “life’s fragility.” They discuss Harbaugh’s overconfidence, Tampa Bay’s public overreaction, and Green Bay’s continued cover streak. Closing with humor, RJ critiques Mackenzie’s betting model, explaining sample bias, overfitting, and data partitioning while still encouraging refinement. They finish optimistic about NBA season prep, model optimization, and maintaining 57% long-term ATS success, ending on camaraderie, data discipline, and professional pride in predictive analytics.

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