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Artur Sepp - Conditional Beta (S2E5)

Flirting with Models

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The Tail Risk Model Is Very Attractive

I find the model very appealing having with that a couple of times, both visually and it makes a good deal of sense for most people who have operated in markets. One critique might be it does inherently rely on the realization of past information. And when you're talking about both bull and bear regimes, almost by definition, when you're looking at a rare event, you have less data to work with. I am more after identification of periods when say large enough to value a more likely to occur. Probably if I believe that we are new to go into period of high volatility regime, I would cut my beta exposure. I'd cut my volatility.

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