Value at risk oris expected shortfall. The problem it had was that, should you lose more than a million dollars, the expected loss can be er, 50 million,. You also care about how much you can lose if you lose. There is certain bias, icall te, silent evidence that randon variables tend to show the roser passes af scenarios conditional in nature. It's very easy to be robust against is. And it's extremely easy to be bust.
Nassim Taleb talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about the financial crisis, how we misunderstand rare events, the fragility of the banking system, the moral hazard of government bailouts, the unprecedented nature of really, really bad events, the contribution of human psychology to misinterpreting probability and the dangers of hubris. The conversation closes with a discussion of religion and probability.