The Impact of Lockdowns on COVID-19

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In May 2020, for instance, bats and others analyzed lockdowns in 11 European countries. They extrapolated from the fall in viral transmission that these measures alone had saved more than 3 million lives. One issue is that it could have overstated the size of the benefit because it assumes that without lockdown mandates, people wouldn't have reduced their social contacts. In reality, rising deaths would probably have changed people's behaviour. That happened in Florida, where data showed a reduction in mobility during the first wave about two weeks before lockdowns.

At the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries introduced strict lockdowns to help prevent spread of the disease. Since then, researchers have been studying the effects of these measures to help inform responses to future crises.

Conclusions suggest that countries that acted swiftly to bring in strict measures did best at preserving lives and their economies, but analysing the competing costs and benefits of lockdowns has been tough, as this work often comes down not to scientific calculations, but value judgements.

This is an audio version of our Feature: What scientists have learnt from COVID lockdowns

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