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5min chapter
Don’t expect a zebra
Think with Pinker
The Importance of Your Prior Probability for a Drug Test
Williams: Your prior probability for any test is extremely important. And without that knowledge, i think we are paralyzed. Williams has reframed the medical diagnosis in a subtle but important way. He started by saying that the prevalence of prostate cancer in the population gives us one % which gives us our prior probabilities.
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