Using prediction markets and bidding to price the risk

Rob Hamilton is the co-founder and CEO of Anchor Watch, a Bitcoin custody and insurance provider.

In this episode, Rob breaks down BIP-444, the proposed soft fork aimed at stopping spam. He explains why it represents the most contentious governance moment since the block-size wars, what the proposal actually changes, how it could trigger chain splits and reorgs, and why he believes the effort has almost no chance of success.

We discuss the economics, incentives, and psychology behind the new fork movement, why filters failed, how miners really behave under fee pressure, and why futures markets can ultimately determine whether a fork has any economic weight.

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