4min chapter

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185: How to avoid creating trading strategies that degrade quickly - Timothy Masters

Better System Trader

CHAPTER

Simulations of Drawdowns

Timothy Stanley: I've seen simulations in which they can be off by a factor of 10 or more. He says it's dangerous to use these out of sample trades to compute probabilities of drawdowns. We still have this unbiased balance, but the extremes become worse, he says. "Extremely good results and extremely bad results will both be more common in real life than what you observed"

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