4min chapter

Forward Guidance cover image

The Fed Will Tighten "As Far As They Can" Into 2023 | Joseph Wang & George Goncalves

Forward Guidance

CHAPTER

Is the Fed Cutting Rates a Warning Signal That We're in a Recession?

Inverted yield curve is a warning that a recession is on the way Although it doesn't mean it's coming overnight and as you said You the time that you should actually be on full alarm. The shape and the speed of the curves shifts are Or super important. How much further inversion can we really get before we get that steepening move? I think that's that'm that is the trillion dollar question like and then that ties back to Does that eventually force the fed's hand and eventually do get cuts at the end of the year Right and George this excellent chart goes out to 1991 and there are no examples of 2s 10s being inverted or pivoting so far. But the next

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