#76-How mathematics can improve our lives and make us better critical thinkers-with guest John Allen Paulos
Thinking Clearly
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Is There a Base Rate Neglect?
The probability being innocent given the evidence now rises to one in six. That's a defense attorney's conditional probability that he or she will emphasize it. So all I hear is not A, but they're not A often enough. The focus on is the A. It's a minimal amount of logical processing that people have to go through. Even a minimal amount is too much if they're not paying a whole lot of attention.
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