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2min chapter
Predicting the Future ft. Stephen Grugett
The New Liberal Podcast
The Basic Efficiency Argument for Prediction Markets
There's a very basic efficiency argument you can give for why prediction markets work in the general case. If your pundit really is better, then you're going to make a huge amount of money over time. As long as there are like valuable sources of information out there and people who are interested and earning money, then we can expect the market to be pretty efficient.
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