SI376: What They’re Only Now Starting to See ft. Andrew Beer
Top Traders Unplugged
Reframing Managed Futures as a Crystal Ball
Andrew proposes selling managed futures as a 'cloudy crystal ball' that detects local information before macro shifts.
In this week’s Systematic Investor episode, Niels and Andrew Beer explore how a broken 60/40 paradigm is forcing wealth managers into a new world of “other” diversifiers. Andrew reflects on the Goldman Sachs report about private wealth flows, the rise of liquid alts and why big houses are suddenly launching trend ETFs. The conversation dives into replication versus traditional CTAs, the true cost of complexity, and Simplify’s new index-based product built on Andrew’s strategy. Along the way they debate pods, Bitcoin, and Andrew’s evolving metaphor of managed futures as a cloudy, but occasionally crystal-clear, macro crystal ball.
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Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro and Thanksgiving reflections, gratitude and mood after the holiday
01:14 - Goldman report: trillions from wealthy investors and a seismic shift away from 60/40
03:38 - Why bonds stopped diversifying and the growth of the “other” bucket in portfolios
05:44 - Liquid alts vs illiquid alts and the timing of big firms launching trend ETFs
08:25 - Odd Lots, pods and Dalio’s skepticism on multi-strats’ future
09:22 - Bitcoin’s volatile run and rumors of a manipulated pullback
10:59 - November performance: zigzags in trend indices and short-term traders’ struggles
12:55 - How DBMF positioned: concentration, short yen, euro pain and being contrarian post “Liberation Day”
16:05 - Are we still “replication”? Alternative data beta, tracking error and what’s really being delivered
18:16 - Targeting “space beta” plus cost savings: is complexity in CTAs adding or destroying value?
22:14 - Indexing the replication strategy and using swaps: Simplify’s new "low" headline fee ETF built on Andrew’s index
30:49 - The fee and cost debate: headline fees, trading costs, swaps and what investors should really ask
34:33 - Implementation costs, incentive fees and tax efficiency versus simple fee labels
45:08 - A better story for managed futures: from black box trend to “cloudy crystal ball”
51:22 - How trend taps local information: “someone knows something” and prices as detectors
58:03 - Takeaways from the Stockholm roundtable: short vs long term, exotic markets and heterogeneity
01:01:07 - Alpha-beta separation, core CTA beta vs high-conviction managers and where the space is heading
01:03:44 - Closing thoughts: civilized disagreement, common mission and why every portfolio needs this exposure
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