Technical Approaches to Historical Forecasting

David Duvenaud is an associate professor of computer science and statistics at the University of Toronto. He joins the podcast to discuss gradual disempowerment in a post-AGI world. We ask how humans could lose economic and political leverage without a sudden takeover, including how property rights could erode. Duvenaud describes how growth incentives shape culture, why aligning AI to humanity may become unpopular, and what better forecasting and governance might require.

LINKS:

• David Duvenaud academic homepage
• Gradual Disempowerment
• The Post-AGI Workshop
• Post-AGI Studies Discord

CHAPTERS:

(00:00) Episode Preview

(01:05) Introducing gradual disempowerment

(06:06) Obsolete labor and UBI

(14:29) Property, power, and control

(23:38) Culture shifts toward AIs

(34:34) States misalign without people

(44:15) Competition and preservation tradeoffs

(53:03) Building post-AGI studies

(01:02:29) Forecasting and coordination tools

(01:10:26) Human values and futures

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