Bonus: Preventing an AI-Related Catastrophe
Hear This Idea
00:00
The Scaling Hypothesis of Transformative AI
A researcher at Open Philanthropy attempted to forecast transformative AI by comparing modern deep learning to the human brain. Ajaya Kotra's 2022 update on her report's conclusions estimates that there is a 35% probability of transformative AI by 2036, 50% by 2040 and 60% by 2050. Tom Davidson expects these numbers to be underestimates. All in all, AI seems to be advancing rapidly. More money and talent is going into the field every year; models are getting bigger and more efficient. We've argued so far that we expect AI to be an important and potentially transformative new technology. Now we'll turn to the core question: Why do we think this matters so much?
Transcript
Play full episode
