Probability of selling versus withdrawals

UK Property Market Weekly Update - Week 37, 2025 Welcome to the 37th UK Property Market Stats Show of 2025, your weekly YouTube ‘TV programme’ on the UK housing market. This week, I’m joined by Toby Phillips, boss man of Martin & Co, CJ Hole & some other franchise brands of TPFG as we unpack the key headlines from Week 37 (ending Sunday 21st September 2025). ▶️ Watch on YouTube: 
https://youtu.be/nIMgRKVgnYM 🔍 Key Market Headlines – Week 37, 2025 ✅ New Listings * 35.9k new properties came to market this week, down from 37.4k last week. * 2025 weekly average: 36.2k. * * Nine year week 37 average :35.6k * Year-to-date (YTD): 1.34m new listings, 2.8% higher than 2024 YTD and 10.6% above the 2017–19 average. ✅ Price Reductions * 26.2k reductions this week, slightly higher to last week at 25.6k. * Only 11.1% of homes were reduced in August, compared with 14.1% in July and 14% in June. * 2025 average so far: 13.1%, versus the five-year long-term average of 10.7%. ✅ Sales Agreed * 25.3k homes sold subject to contract this week, slightly down from 25.6k last week. * * Week 37 average (for last 9 years) :25.5k * 2025 weekly average : 26.2k. * YTD: 969k gross sales, which is 5.9% ahead of 2024 (914k) and 13.5% above the 2017–19 average (854k). ✅ Sell-Through Rate * 14.5% of homes on agents’ books went SSTC in August. * Down from 15.4% in July, 15.3% in June, and 16.1% in May. * Pre-Covid average: 15.5%. ✅ Fall-Throughs * 6,328 fall-throughs last week (pipeline of 510k home Sold STC). * Weekly average for 2025: 6,219. * Fall-through rate: 25%, up from 24.8% last week. * Long-term average: 24.2% (post-Truss chaos saw levels exceed 40%). ✅ Net Sales * 19k net sales this week, up from 19.2k last week. * Nine-year Week 37 average: 19.3k. * Weekly average for 2025: 20k. * YTD: 739k, which is 5.1% ahead of 2024 (703k) and 10% above 2017–19 (671k). ✅ Probability of Selling (% that Exchange vs withdrawal) * Preliminary August: 55.1% of homes that left agents’ books exchanged & completed. * July: 50.9% / June: 51.3% / May: 51.7% / April: 53.2%. ✅ Stock Levels (1st of Month) * 736k homes on the market at the start of September, 6.7% higher than Sept 2024. * 510k homes in pipelines, 3.4% higher than August 2024. ✅ House Prices (£/sq.ft) * August 2025 agreed sales averaged £338.78 per sq.ft. * 1.41% higher than August 2024, and 14.25% higher than August 2020. ✅ Rental Market * August 2025 average rent: £1,828 pcm (vs £1,779 pcm in August 2024). * YTD 2025 average: £1,776 pcm. * 299k rental properties came on the market in August 2025, compared to 305k in Aug ’24, 243k in Aug ’23 & 353k in Aug ’19 ✅ Local Focus on the Show: Chesterfield ✅ Graphs https://we.tl/t-YqMX4MgoUB