VC Environment: Scarcity of Large Growth Deals

“I think this is a sort of coming-of-age moment. When I say coming of age, I mean collectively for Chinese entrepreneurs. Many of these founders are my age, or even younger, and I’ve spoken with some of them. I can really relate to why they want to build businesses that target the global market instead of just China. In the past, you could build a company in China first and then think about expanding outward. That’s no longer possible. For any consumer-facing software company today, from day one you must decide: Do I build for China, or do I build for Global minus China? The examples of TikTok, Shein, and many others show that you cannot do both. It’s not possible to serve both markets at once.” - Jing Yang

Fresh out of the studio, Jing Yang, the Asia Bureau Chief from The Information, shares her insights on ByteDance's pivotal moment, China's venture capital challenges, and the emerging U.S.-China competition in AI and robotics. Starting with ByteDance's latest financials, she revealed how the company now exceeds Meta in revenue but still lags significantly in profit margins, with its domestic business—Douyin and Toutiao—continuing to drive the lion's share of profits while TikTok remains unprofitable. Jing Yang explains how founder Zhang Yiming has entered "founder mode," dramatically increasing CapEx spending on AI development while ByteDance mysteriously went quiet on the AI leaderboard despite earlier dominance. Moving to venture capital, she unpacks why HongShan Capital has only deployed a quarter of its $9 billion fund raised in 2022, citing the collapse of exit opportunities, new overseas listing regulations from Chinese regulators, and the disappearance of big-ticket growth deals. She then explores the new wave of Chinese AI startups targeting global markets from day one, explaining how censorship and geopolitics force founders to choose between building for China or building for the world—they cannot do both. Finally, Jing Yang breaks down China's non-obvious advantage in humanoid robotics: not manufacturing prowess, but access to advanced manufacturing test beds where robots can be deployed, iterated, and refined at scale—an advantage The U.S. simply cannot match beyond Tesla.

Episode Highlights:
[00:00] Quote of the Day by Jing Yang from The Information
[02:14] ByteDance revenue exceeds Meta, profit lags
[05:01] Zhang Yiming goes founder mode with AI
[08:24] TikTok's significance to ByteDance's future
[10:18] China signals willingness on TikTok deal
[13:02] Chinese tech giants pivots to semiconductors, hard tech
[14:27] ByteDance's quiet AI strategy and leadership
[19:11] Why HongShan, formerly Sequoia China deploys only quarter of $9B fund
[21:00] China VC market lacks big growth deals
[24:20] New overseas listing regulations hinder exits
[26:15] Chinese VCs struggle with US investments
[29:53] Chinese founders target global markets from day one
[32:20] What forces global versus China product split
[38:28] Chinese apps feel holistic but culturally distinct
[43:00] ChatGPT arrival sparked physical AI revolution
[47:23] Chinese AI companies prioritize commercial use cases over AGI
[50:13] China's manufacturing provides crucial test beds advantage
[53:42] Redefining what constitutes a Chinese startup
[54:55] AI race between Chinese in China vs US
[58:00] Closing

Profile: Jing Yang, Asia Bureau Chief from The Information

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jing-yang-33548123/

Podcast Information: Bernard Leong hosts and produces the show. The proper credits for the intro and end music are "Energetic Sports Drive." G. Thomas Craig mixed and edited the episode in both video and audio format.

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