Mantic Monday: Dogs In Wizard Hats
Astral Codex Ten Podcast
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How to Predict a Hospital Overcrowding Crisis
Mantick wants to lean into the subjective side of prediction markets and see what happens. Their idea is any one can write a question on their market, whoever writes it also judges it. So if i write the question on whether omicron will cause a hospital overcrowding crisis, i get to decide whether whatever's going on next month counts as a crisis or not. This works. Expect come bet on my prediction market question to join penus enlargement pills and crypto ponsy schemes as a classic form of span. It's probably illegal to offer real money prediction markets to americans. They're still trying figure out ways around this. I don't know if they'll succeed.
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