Predictive Markets

Ajegist: It's pretty easy to falsify that one, right? Either i have that sandwich or i don't. I could imagine someone trying to apply predicted markets to questions about, say, social stability. And unless that question were, i think, defined in a very narrow way, like the x number of race riots define by this or that criteria a year,. Like, unless you dena really had a very specific how variable you are measuring, it would be, i i could imagine this not working as well. Ajegist: The first challenge when creating the prediction markets is operationalizing a question while taking something very muddy, complicated state of affairs that people care about