The Likelihood of an S Risk Universe

Liron Shapira is an entrepreneur, angel investor, and CEO of counseling startup Relationship Hero. He’s also a rationalist, advisor for the Machine Intelligence Research Institute and Center for Applied Rationality, and a consistently candid AI doom pointer-outer.

• Liron’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/liron

• Liron’s Substack: https://lironshapira.substack.com/

• Liron’s old blog, Bloated MVP: https://www.bloatedmvp.com

TJP LINKS:

• TRANSCRIPT: https://www.theojaffee.com/p/10-liron-shapira

• YouTube: https://youtu.be/YfEcAtHExFM

• Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/theo-jaffee-podcast/id1699912677

• RSS: https://api.substack.com/feed/podcast/989123/s/75569/private/129f6344-c459-4581-a9da-dc331677c2f6.rss

• Playlist of all episodes: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLVN8-zhbMh9YnOGVRT9m0xzqTNGD_sujj

• My Twitter: https://x.com/theojaffee

• My Substack: https://www.theojaffee.com

CHAPTERS:

• Intro (0:00)

• Non-AI x-risks (0:53)

• AI non-x-risks (3:00)

• p(doom) (5:21)

• Liron vs. Eliezer (12:18)

• Why might doom not happen? (15:42)

• Elon Musk and AGI (17:12)

• Alignment vs. Governance (20:24)

• Scott Alexander lowering p(doom) (22:32)

• Human minds vs ASI minds (28:01)

• Vitalik Buterin and d/acc (33:30)

• Carefully bootstrapped alignment (35:22)

• GPT vs AlphaZero (41:55)

• Belrose & Pope AI Optimism (43:17)

• AI doom meets daily life (57:57)

• Israel vs. Hamas (1:02:17)

• Rationalism (1:06:15)

• Crypto (1:14:50)

• Charlie Munger and Richard Feynman (1:22:12)