The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish cover image

#53 Howard Marks: Luck, Risk and Avoiding Losers

The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish

00:00

The Probability of a Returning Investment

In economics, we make decisions based on what's called the expected value. If you roll a a thousand dice, a thousand times six, 36 of the outcomes will be seven. But in one roll, anyo oi. That's the difference between probability and outcome. And that's where the uncertainty comes in the risk.

Transcript
Play full episode

The AI-powered Podcast Player

Save insights by tapping your headphones, chat with episodes, discover the best highlights - and more!
App store bannerPlay store banner
Get the app