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Stephen Davies - What Is Global Catastrophic Risk?

The Curious Task

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The Probability of a Natural Pandemic

The likelihood of a natural pandemic that kills about half the world's population is about one in 700 years er. But for various reasons, things that we human beings are doing at the moment, the chance of that happening is actually about twice that. So we're talking about a one in 300 year event, which means that in any one year thate's a nort point three % probability that it will happen. Now that's actually significantly higher than people should be comfortable with. And of course, again, to reata my early point, it means that, given enough time, it will happened. The only question is, will it happen a sufficiently long time in the future that by the

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