4min chapter

COMPLEXITY cover image

Glen Weyl & Cris Moore on Plurality, Governance, and Decentralized Society (EPE 05)

COMPLEXITY

CHAPTER

Prediction Markets Aren't Scalable I'm a Skeptic of Predictive Markets

i'm a little worried that kind of like a jury trial and a decent espresso that's just not something which scales well but maybe there's a way to do it i don't know maybe. We are supposed to be willing to change our minds when the evidence suggests it and to let go of our ideas rather than of course in reality it's often just that the old scientists die. There is a science here that can advance dramatically but we've been seduced by oh we're going to do the unbiased algorithm that's going to predict the truth the right way instead of saying no people are diverse you have a lot of different opinions how do we actually help people navigate that complexity so i really

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