How to Estimate Uncertainty in College Football Simulations

John Sutter: The attractiveness of taking a Bayesian perspective is that you treat the parameters, like these team abilities as random variables. And so I mean, it's not the only framework for thinking about that uncertainty, but it is a cohe, very coherent way of doing it. Yep. We've got the better Sim and we still got an edge in college football, but we've always had this in our model. Even Massy Peabody's NFL model has not really is lost its edge on the market.