Arun K. Singh on India-Pakistan Ceasefire
Interpreting India
The Ups and Downs of the India-Pakistan Relationship Post 2008
Civil military relations between India and Pakistan is a strong determinant of what happens along the border. From 2008 onwards we did see violence along the border sort of escalate but more so from 2013. In February 2021 through the DJMOs Indian Pakistan reaffirmed their commitment to the ceasefire.
Over the last three decades, cross-border violence between India and Pakistan has been interspersed with periods of relative peace. Until 2003, ceasefires along the Line of Control and International Border in Jammu and Kashmir (in 1949, 1965, and 1971) were preceded by war between India and Pakistan. On the night of November 23, 2003, an announcement of a unilateral ceasefire, starting on Eid-ul-Fitr, was made by then prime minister of Pakistan Mir Zafarullah Khan Jamali. Following this, during their weekly call, the Director Generals of Military Operations or DGMOs from the two countries agreed on a ceasefire along the Line of Control, International Border, and Actual Ground Position Line. And so, the ceasefire came into effect from 25 November 2003.
Given the violence of the previous 14 years, the ceasefire was a welcome move. The years between 1989 and 2003 saw cross-border violence touch record levels. 2001 and 2002 saw 4,134 and 5,767 ceasefire violations respectively by Pakistan, as reported by India. Thus, the ceasefire resulted in a stable border and immediate relief for civilians. According to some reports, there was not a single ceasefire violation between India and Pakistan between 2004 and 2006, while others report that the number was negligible. The larger change in India-Pakistan relations following the institution of the composite dialogue process also enabled different confidence-building measures on the LoC, such as the opening of passenger routes on the Poonch-Rawalakot and Srinagar-Muzaffarabad axes, enabling bus traffic and eventually cross-border trade. The period also saw the completion of border fencing on the LoC as a measure to prevent infiltration.
From 2007 onwards, ceasefire violations began to rise, intensifying after 2013. The larger relationship too started to see tensions due to terror attacks in India, civil-military dynamics in Pakistan, cross-border retaliatory actions such as the surgical strikes in 2016, and the Balakot airstrikes in 2019. In 2020, India reported 5,133 CFVs on the border. A reaffirmation of the ceasefire through a DGMO conversation and a subsequent joint statement by India and Pakistan in February 2021 was a major effort to arrest this trend.
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Episode Contributors
Arun K. Singh is a nonresident senior fellow at Carnegie India. He has extensive experience across the globe, including as India’s ambassador to the United States, Israel, and France. Throughout his distinguished career in the Indian Foreign Service spanning thirty-seven years, he has served during pivotal periods in key global capitals and was instrumental in shaping India’s policies, notably the continued progress in the U.S.-India relationship, India’s closer ties to Israel, and the formulation and implementation of India’s policies related to Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Iran, including in the period following 9/11.
Surya Valliappan Krishna is the associate director of projects and operations at Carnegie India. His research interests are India-Pakistan relations, border security, and cross-border violence. In particular, he works on the nature and dynamics of cross-border violence and its impact on civilian communities.
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Additional Reading
Bordering on Peace: Evaluating the impact of the India-Pakistan Ceasefire by Surya Valliappan Krishna
Caught in the Crossfire: Tension and Trade Along the Line of Control by Surya Valliappan Krishna
Sending the Right Signal: Telecom Connectivity along the Line of Control by Surya Valliappan Krishna
Mental Health on the Line (of Control) by Surya Valliappan Krishna
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