Building Intuition for Probabilistic Settings

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In Withers' Guide to Sysac, something you do that's really cool is the way you focus on getting an intuitive feel for randomness and probabilities. And I like that a lot because I think in real life, we're often thrown off by randomness. Having a framework for these kinds of things can simplify certain types of decisions.

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What are "shed" and "cake" projects? And how can you avoid "shed" projects? What is the "jobs to be done" framework? What is the "theory of change" framework? How can people use statistics (or statistical intuition) in everyday life? How accurate are climate change models? How much certainty do scientists have about climate change outcomes? What are some promising strategies for mitigating and reversing climate change?

Cassandra Xia (@CassandraXia) is the creator of Adventures in Cognitive Biases and co-founder of the non-profit Work on Climate. She is fascinated by how human biases affect the actions we take as a society and how to hack human psychology to get the change that we want. She is previously affiliated with the MIT Media Lab, MIT CS department, and Google AI. More of Cassandra's work can be found at cassandraxia.com and workonclimate.org.

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