Tom welcomes back Chris Vermeulen, the founder of The Technical Traders, to discuss market trends post-election and the impact of the looming economic debt situation. According to Chris, the small business sector has seen significant growth since Trump's win, as indicated by the Russell 2000's jump. However, he believes that the end of the economic cycle is near and advises investors to consider defensive assets like gold and utilities due to market uncertainty. Chris identifies the current market stage as a potential topping phase, with signs such as resistance levels in gold and energy stocks.
Chris highlights the challenges facing the economy, including an expensive housing market, rising unemployment, and struggling business sales in the S&P 500. Delinquencies for credit cards and commercial real estate mortgages are increasing, signaling a potential looming financial reset. The nervousness within the market is evident through strong performances of the U.S. dollar and gold as safe havens, with the New York Stock Exchange experiencing distribution selling and institutions unloading large shares.
Despite a bullish stance on equities, Chris suggests investing in bonds, the dollar, or cash during market volatility before transitioning to an inverse ETF during a potential bear market. He is excited about Bitcoin's potential upward movement, predicting price targets using Fibonacci extensions and technical analysis, but remains skeptical of it as a long-term investment due to its volatile nature.
Chris expresses his concerns about gold from a cyclical standpoint, acknowledging that it has reached a significant resistance level, which is part of a 15-year cycle pattern. He suggests that the measured move is complete and that gold might consolidate before potentially moving up to around $3000. Chris emphasizes this doesn't mean a downward trend but rather a pause in the uptrend.
Chris also believes that the Russell 2000, representing small caps in the US, serves as an indicator of when money might move out of riskier stocks into safe-havens like gold and the dollar. He anticipates gold will resume its defensive role once the stock market starts to show weakness, making it an attractive investment option again.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:48 - Elections & Markets3:22 - When the Music Stops10:40 - Nervous Markets13:11 - S&P Order Book15:06 - Trump & Dollar Scenarios19:03 - Rate Cuts & Recessions20:47 - Overall Trends & ETFs22:54 - Bitcoin Chart28:00 - Gold Technicals31:41 - Overbought/Sold & Gold34:46 - Silver Thoughts36:05 - Next Crisis & Capital38:19 - Bubbles & Buy The Dip?42:36 - Market Stages & Strategy44:33 - Oil Market Concerns51:14 - 2025 Expectations52:40 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Chris Vermeulen anticipates market uncertainty due to economic debt situation; advises defensive assets like gold and utilities.
He identifies signs of a potential topping phase, including resistance levels in gold and energy stocks.
Despite his bullish stance on equities, he suggests investing in bonds, the dollar, or cash during market volatility.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/TheTechTradersWebsite: https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/
Chris Vermeulen is the Founder of Technical Traders Ltd. Chris has been involved in the markets since 1997. He is an internationally recognized technical analyst, trader, and author.
Years of research, trading, and helping individual traders worldwide have taught him that many traders have great trading ideas, but they lack one thing. They struggle to execute trades systematically for consistent results. Chris helps educate traders, and his mission is to help his clients boost their trading performance while reducing market exposure and portfolio volatility.
He has also been on the cover of AmalgaTrader Magazine and featured in Futures Magazine, Gold-Eagle, Safe Haven, The Street, Kitco, Financial Sense,
