Philip tatlock was one of five academic research teams competing to pull together o the best methods of making probability estimates. What kind of questions were they asking? All over the map, quite literally. So there would be quest sabout violent clashes in the east or south china sea. There would be questions about the syrian civil war and russian ucranian relations. And ah, bill flack is an anonymous retired irrigation specialist working it nebraska, working out of the public library or out of his home,. He did a fabulous job making probability estimates, ine intelligence, combulity forecasting tournament.