Right now, right before we had our conversation, there was a new poll that came out on the presidential campaign in the United States. And I had, I don't know, seven friends immediately who are sending me this poll and saying, what does this say about November? I wonder if one of the reasons that polling is so bad right now when you look at kind of post 2016 is for that very reason. There was an assumption in 2016 that the fundamentals were what mattered and that you just look at the fundamentals, it's going to work. And then there were some flukish things that happened in some events and in some particular states. And we just weren't ready for that in this kind of era. Yeah.

So, you know, when I think about the fundamentals, what I would say is that people try to read into them extensively. The fundamental I can put, you know, I would bet on is the race will be somewhat close. That's the only fundamental I can tell you, right? And I think the obvious problem with polling, which is not to take on the polling industry, they're trying to do their best with an uncertain future, it's that if I said to you, okay, I'm going to poll who's going to win the election in 30 years, you would say this is ridiculous, right? So, all it is is a question of when does it become meaningful? And if we're going to say, okay, six months out, five months out, we can now do this, well, people will have different views on this. And my view is the world is going to be different in November than it is in May. And so I can't forecast and the polls are not trying to forecast really what the polls are trying to do is saying, if the election was held today, who would win? But the election's not held today. And a lot of stuff is going to happen between now and November. And I think all this stuff about October surprise and so on, it says though there is a race that happens before, and then there's this sort of shifting thing, there's only one race and it's November. And that's the only poll that matters. And I think what people tend to believe is that these opinions or viewpoints are fixed. There might be another war. I mean, in 2020, there was a pandemic that broke out in March. I mean, all the polling in February, it had nothing to say about the November election because this massive upheaval of the world happened. So all I would say is as someone who's a political scientist is, I will guess that this is going to be a close race. And the only thing that I think is going to happen is that the world is going to happen and the world is going to happen. And the only thing that I think is going to happen is that the world is going to happen because the world is not a static thing. This show is sponsored by BetterHelp.

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