Regression to the Mean

Kahneman saw something different in this response and he says that he immediately set up an experiment to demonstrate the flaw in the flight instructors thinking here. He has people stand with their backs to a target so they couldn't see it, and they would take two attempts to throw a coin and hit the target without any feedback of any kind. And after staging a number of these, he found again what he suspected that the people who were the closest on the first throw did worse on their secondthrow. So simply put, if you're sampling something over time, if one sample produces an extreme value, the next one is more likely to be closer to the average.