4min chapter

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Rationally Speaking #3 - Can History Be a Science?

Rationally Speaking Podcast

CHAPTER

The Importance of Unpredictable Events in History

The key to making predictions is not about data from the future, it's just data that we didn't already have. The demographic structure theory makes pretty strong predictions about their timing and dynamics of such events in internal wars. But even though we may not be able to predict the intensity of any particular war, we cannot predict ahead of time the intensity of the next earthquake. Still, you can do lots of useful things.

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