Clay Graubard and Robert de Neufville on forecasting the war in Ukraine
80k After Hours
00:00
Do You Think That Would Have Stopped a Ukranian Invasion?
The model that yhadfthis was, was better than a lot of people had, but an forecast of like 98 %, that seems kind of over confident. How can you justify having such an extreme, extremely highlike probability invasion ahead of it? Yes 98 would have been like five, six days beforehand. And by then it was like, putton is pulling away his forces. They're gettinging into forward camp positions. So they were moving out of staging grounds into like small tactical units on the field. You cannot maintain that force posture for more than like, a week. Either putton is going to reveal that he is bluffing right here and right now, or he's
Transcript
Play full episode
