Economist Steve Hanke says a U.S. recession is almost inevitable, and warns that the Fed, Wall Street, and Donald Trump are all looking in the wrong direction. In this sharp, wide-ranging interview with James Connor, he explains why ignoring money supply is a fatal flaw in today’s policy and why the economy may be headed for a major contraction.
Hanke also unpacks global warning signs: deflation in China, collapsing demand, rising youth unemployment, and geopolitical chaos, all while markets remain near all-time highs akin to the early 2000s dot-com bubble.
Key Topics:
• Why Steve thinks there’s an 80 to 90% chance of a U.S. recession
• Why Powell is ignoring money supply growth, and why it matters
• China’s economic weakness and deflation
• The weaponization of the dollar and its global fallout
• Why the stock market looks like the early 2000s dot-com bubble
• Bond market concerns and real yields rising
• U.S. defense spending: “a black hole” fueling endless war
• Still bullish on gold, and how to track sentiment
• Market vs. macro disconnect: Buffett’s caution is a clue
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Steven Hanke’s books:
- Making Money Work: How to Rewrite the Rules of Our Financial System: https://a.co/d/6Oip6hx
- Capital, Interest, and Waiting: Controversies, Puzzles, and New Additions to Capital Theory: https://a.co/d/2PuBVMV
Chapters
0:57 - Trump’s “Too-Late Powell” Tweet: Hanke Fires Back
5:36 - Is the Fed Still Behind the Curve?
7:06 - Money Supply at 4 %: Recession Brewing?
10:35 - Global Demand Cracks: Louis Vuitton to JetBlue
16:40 - Is the Dollar Doomed? DXY in Focus
18:10 - Q2 GDP Guess: Hard Landing Ahead?
23:12 - “One Big Beautiful” Bill or Budget Bust?
26:18 - G7 Discord & Canada’s $4 B Ukraine Pledge
30:39 - Why Is Zelensky on the G7 Stage?
31:47 - Can the Battlefield End the Russia-Ukraine War?
32:38 - Market Bubble Detector: S&P at 6000
41:26 - Gold’s 25 % Surge: Still Time to Buy?
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