Fuk yama has not changed his mind about his most famous assertion, although he is open to it if in 30 years, china is bigger than the united states. But he did change his mind on something else. It goes back to that bush carey era and the irak war. In which direction would john carey lead? Carey voted for the irak War, opposed it, supported it and now opposes it again. He wasn't opposed to the us. Desire to intervene and topple a dictator, in this case, sidam hussein. I think that that's happened in the past, and it's had good effects.
There are a lot of barriers to changing your mind: ego, overconfidence, inertia — and cost. Politicians who flip-flop get mocked; family and friends who cross tribal borders are shunned. But shouldn’t we be encouraging people to change their minds? And how can we get better at it ourselves?