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And with credit now outright falling for them, it only gets much worse from here.

Eurodollar University

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The Fed's Reason for Hitting Rates Doesn't Match the on-the-Ground Conditions

We keep talking about nominal spending, nominal PCE that's decelerating in substantial fashion. Even some of the anecdotes that we have been mentioning for the last couple of months, Mr. Van Meters' Disney Park PMI, is becoming more than an anecdote. All the data continues to line up not just as a mild recession but with concerning forward looking indicators like Disney offering discounts well into the Christmas season. The fact that we can't see it in the main statistics that the Fed tells us to watch, that's just a matter of timing.

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