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What's the Nature of Nuclear War?
The biggest datum here is that we've had an enormous decline in major war over the last century. War is a process that has a very long tail and there are rare, very large wars. The average war is much worse than the median war because of this long tail. But it could be that's because the tail has gotten thicker. And in fact, the average war is just as bad, but most wars are going to be big wars.