2min chapter

Clearer Thinking with Spencer Greenberg cover image

How to form habits effectively (with Jim Davies)

Clearer Thinking with Spencer Greenberg

CHAPTER

How to Maximize Expected Value

There is sort of a model uncertainty to the whole problem, which is in other words, there's a whole bunch of assumptions baked into these estimates. And those assumptions, you can model the parts that you know you don't know, right? For example, well, we don't know if this value is one or 10. So what if it's not really a uniform distribution one to 10? Well, what if that's not the way it is in reality? What if there's a chance that the answer is 0.1 or 100, right? It's very, very hard to know how to include that kind of uncertainty.

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