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Prediction Market FAQ

Astral Codex Ten Podcast

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The Crisis of Trust in Prediction Markets

Memes stocks are a type of Ponzi. It's reasonable in quotes to buy GameStop at some inflated price because who knows? Someone else might buy it at an even more inflated price tomorrow. Unlike meme stocks, prediction markets have a clear resolution date. If you're predicting who will win the next election, the market will go to 100% or 0% after the election finishes.

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