South Carolina’s Unexpected Senate Vulnerability

Three weeks out, Chuck Todd reads a Pew survey that gives Republicans nothing: Trump at 30% approval — his lowest of the second term and on par with where he sat after January 6th — Democrats up 44-36 on the generic ballot, and 44% of voters describing their vote as a vote against Trump. The enthusiasm gap is the number Todd keeps returning to, and his argument is that we may still be underestimating the size of this wave. He walks through why the close Senate races map almost perfectly onto the states Trump lost in the 2016 primaries, why Roger Marshall’s campaign reportedly has no paid staff, and why bad environments expose bad candidates. Plus Hegseth’s execution livestream, Trump’s Truth Social meltdown over the Nobel, and what a genuine blue wave would mean for both. 

Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit the creation of the Bull Moose Party and its impact on both major parties, answers questions in the Ask Chuck segment and recaps the weekend in college football.

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /  *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide.

Timeline:

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

08:15 How bad a night are Republicans actually looking at?

10:15 Inside the Pew numbers: 30% approval, D+8 generic

12:15 The enthusiasm gap and why the wave may be bigger than we think

19:00 Trump has lost the voters he added in 2024

23:00 Republicans can’t separate themselves from Trump’s decisions

25:30 GOP money promoting left-wing third party candidates

28:00 Kansas as a toss-up, and the 2016 primary map

34:15 Roger Marshall, no paid staff, and how bad environments expose bad candidates

39:30 Hegseth, the execution livestream, and a low opinion of their own voters

47:00 Rubio in Greece, power vs. accomplishment, and the DOJ memo

56:15 Trump’s Nobel meltdown and selling out Lindsey Graham’s legacy 

1:04:15 ToddCast Time Machine - October 14th, 1912

1:04:45 Teddy Roosevelt shot, insists on giving speech anyway

1:08:15 Roosevelt wants more government power to oppose corporate power

1:11:15 Taft & Roosevelt’s falling out

1:15:00 The Bull Moose Party is born 

1:15:45 The differences between Roosevelt and Trump

1:17:45 Roosevelt’s proposals became future progressivism & the New Deal

1:21:15 Republicans moved away from Roosevelt’s philosophy, Dems embraced it

1:23:45 Parts of Bull Moose live on in both modern parties

1:25:45 Ask Chuck

1:26:00 If Dems take house, who becomes speaker and who SHOULD get the job?

1:30:45 How would a better than expected showing for Republicans materialize?

1:33:45 Constitutional amendment to remove presidential immunity?

1:36:15 Who picks up the tab for all of Trump’s campaigning travel?

1:38:15 Could Annie Andrews' increased visibility cause Graham to make missteps?

1:43:15 College football recap

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.