Dominic Cummings: Vote Leave, Brexit, COVID, and No. 10 with Boris — #28
Manifold
The Secret Polling Data Science Team
I know you have your own secret polling data science team. They looked at a bunch of the polling, the public polling in 2015. And they found some fascinating things by a professor of applied maths called Gellman who'd done these experiments on people he doesn't eat. He did polling via Xbox of like 300,000 people or something for the US presidential 2012 campaign. But essentially what this thing showed was the very large sampling plus some fancy Bayesian statistics actually is a just theoretically better way of doing polling than thousand person polls and simple maths. It's kind of remarkable in lots of ways, right? Because it turned out that quite a lot of these ideas go back to the 70s
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