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Rob Wiblin on self-improvement and research ethics
80,000 Hours Podcast
The Odds Are Strange
I made a legal bet against Trump winning the election I would have I thought were really good oddsYeah yeah I mean so maybe it's worth going through a couple of different case studies of times that at least I thought that the odds are strange. There was one trader who was just buying up Romney and getting him up to a probability of like 30 or 40 percent of winning the election despite the fact that almost all other sources thought that he was substantially less likely than that to win the election. During the Democratic primary this year betting markets gave Joe Biden a pretty low probability of winning even though he had been leading and polling basically the entire time. The market in general is smarter than me but it also
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