Political Dynamics and Authoritarianism in Turkey

Few analysts are more familiar with the politics of both contemporary Turkey and the United States than my old friend , the distinguished Turkish political scientist Soli Ozel. Drawing on his decades of experience in both countries, Ozel, currently a senior fellow at the Institut Montaigne, explains how democratic institutions are similarly being challenged in Trump’s America and Erdogan's Turkey. He discusses the imprisonment of Istanbul's popular mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, restrictive speech in American universities, and how economic decline eventually undermines authoritarian regimes. Ozel emphasizes that effective opposition requires both public discontent and compelling leadership alternatives, which Turkey has developed but America currently sorely lacks. Most intriguingly, he suggests that Harvard's legal battle against Trump could be as significant as the 1925 Scopes trial which marked the end of another bout of anti-scientific hysteria in America.

5 Key Takeaways

* Populist authoritarianism follows a similar pattern regardless of left/right ideology - controlling judiciary, media, and institutions while claiming to represent "the people" against elites.

* Academic freedom in America has declined significantly, with Ozel noting he experienced more classroom freedom in Turkey than at Yale in 2019.

* Economic pain combined with a crisis of legitimacy is crucial for challenging authoritarian regimes, but requires credible opposition leadership to succeed.

* Istanbul mayor Imamoglu has emerged as a powerful opposition figure in Turkey by appealing across political divides and demonstrating practical governance skills.

* Turkey's strategic importance has increased due to its position between war zones (Syria and Ukraine) and Europe's growing need for security partners as American support becomes less certain.

Full Transcript

Andrew Keen: Hello, everybody. It's not great news these days that the U.S. Brand has been, so to speak, tarnished as a headline today on CNN. I'm quoting them. CNN, of course, is not Donald Trump's biggest fan. Trump tarnishes the U S brand as a rock of stability in the global economy. I'm not sure if the US was ever really a rock of stability for anything except itself. But we on the show as. As loyal viewers and listeners know, we've been going around the world, taking stock of the US brand, how it's viewed around the word. We did a show last week with Simon Cooper, the Dutch-based Paris writer of the Financial Times, who believes it's time for all Americans to come and live in Europe. And then with Jemima Kelly, another London-based correspondent. And I thought we would broaden. I asked european perspective by visiting my old friend very old friend Soli Ozel. iVve known him for almost forty years he's a. Senior fellow of international relations and turkey at the montane institute he's talking to us from vienna but he is a man who is born and spends a lot of his time thinking about. Turkey, he has an interesting new piece out in the Institute Montaigne. Turkey, a crisis of legitimacy and massive social mobilization in a regional power. I want to talk to Soli later in this conversation about his take on what's happening in Turkey. But first of all, Soli, before we went live, you noted that you first came to America in September 1977. You were educated here, undergraduate, graduate, both at uh, sized in Washington DC and then at UC Berkeley, where you and I studied together at the graduate program. Um, how do you feel almost 50 years, sorry, we're dating ourselves, but how did you feel taking off your political science cap, your analyst cap, how did you feel about what's happening in America as, as a man who invested your life in some ways in the promise of America, and particularly American education universities.

Soli Ozel: Yeah, I mean, I, yes, I came to the States or I went to the States in September of 1977. It was a very different America, post Vietnam. And I went through an avant garde college liberal arts college.

Andrew Keen: Bennington wasn't

Soli Ozel: Bennington College, and I've spent about 11 years there. And you and I met in 1983 in Berkeley. And then I also taught at American universities. I taught at UC Santa Cruz, Northwestern, SAIS itself, University of Washington, Yale, and had fellowships in different parts. Now, of course, in those years, a lot has changed in the US. The US has changed. In fact, I'm writing a piece now on Christopher Lash. And reading Christopher Lasch work from the 60s and the 1970s, in a way, you wonder why Trumpism has not really emerged a bit earlier than when it did. So, a lot of the... Dynamics that have brought Donald Trump to power, not once, but twice, and in spite of the fact that, you know, he was tried and found guilty and all that. Many of those elements have been there definitely since the 1980s, but Lascch identified especially this divergence between educated people and less educated people between brainies and or the managerial class and the working class in the United States. So, in a way, it looks like the Trumpism's triumph came even a bit late, although there were a couple of attempts perhaps in the early 1990s. One was Pat Buchanan and the other one, Ross Perot, which we forget that Ross Perot got 19% of the vote against in the contest when Bill Clinton. Won the election against George H.W. Bush. So underground, if you will, a lot was happening in the United States.

Andrew Keen: All right. And it's interesting you bring up Lash, there's that sort of whole school Lasch Daniel Bell, of course, we had Daniel Bell's son, David Bell, on the show recently. And there's a lot of discussion, as I'm sure you know, about the nativism of Trump, whether it's uniquely American, whether it was somehow inevitable. We've done last week, we did a show about comparing what's happening now in America to what happened after the First World War. Being less analytical, Solé, my question was more an emotional one to you as someone who has built their life around freedom of expression in American universities. You were at Bennington, you were at SICE, you're at UC Berkeley, as you know, you taught at UC Santa Cruz and Yale and many other places. You come in and out of this country giving lectures. How do you personally feel about what's happening?

Soli Ozel: Yeah, okay. I mean, in that sense, again, the United States, by the way, I mean the United States has been changing independently of Mr. Trump's presidency. It was much more difficult to be, I mean when I went to college in Bennington College, you really did not bite your tongue when you were going to speak either as a student or a professor. And increasingly, and especially in my last bout at Yale in 2019, I felt that, you know, there were a lot of constraints on what you could say or how you could say it, whether you would call it walkism, political correctness, whatever it was. It was a much, the atmosphere at the university was much more constrained in terms of what transpired in the classroom and that I mean, in Turkey, I had more freedom in terms of how we debated things in class that I felt that...

Andrew Keen: That is astonishing. So you had more freedom in...

Soli Ozel: As well, you did in Yale in 1990. I'm talking about not the political aspect of things, but how you debate something, okay, whether or not, I mean, there would be lots of views and you could you could present them without insulting anyone, however you presented them was fine, and this is how what the dynamics of the classroom had been when I was a student. So, in that sense, I guess it wasn't just the right that constrained speech, but also the left that constrained the speech, because new values were added or new norms were invented to define what can and cannot be said. And of course, that goes against the grain of what a university education ought to be. I mean, I had colleagues. In major universities who told me that they really were biting their tongue when they were giving their lectures. And that is not my understanding of education or college education and that certainly has not been my experience when I came to the States and for my long education here for 11 years.

Andrew Keen: Solit, you and I have a long history of thinking about the Middle East, where back in the early 80s, we TA'd a class on the Arab-Israeli conflict with Yaya Sadowski, who at that time was a very independent thinker. I know he was a close friend of yours. I was always very influenced by his thinking. You're from Izmir, from a Jewish family in Turkey. So you're all too familiar with the complexity of anti-Semitism, Israel, the Middle East, Turkey. What do you personally make of this hysteria now on campus about anti-semitism and throwing out anyone, it seems, at least from the Trump point of view, who are pro-Palestinian? Is this again, I mean, you went back to Christopher Lasch and his thinking on populism and the dangers of populism in America. Or is this something that... Comes out of the peculiarities of American history. We have predicted this 40 years ago when you and I were TAing Sadowski's class on Arab-Israeli conflict at Berkeley.

Soli Ozel: The Arab-Israeli conflict always raises passions, if you will. And it's no different. To put it mildly, Salvador, I think. Yeah, it is a bit different now. I mean, of course, my hunch is that anti-Semitism is always present. There is no doubt. And although I followed the developments very closely after October 7. I was not in there physically present. I had some friends, daughters and sons who were students who have reported to me because I'm supposed to know something about those matters. So yeah, antisemitism is there. On the other hand, there is also some exaggeration. We know that a lot of the protesters, for instance, were Jews themselves. But my hunch is that the Trump administration, especially in their attack against elite universities, are using this for political purposes. I'm sure there were other ways of handling this. I don't find it very sincere. And a real problem is being dealt with in a very manipulative political way, I think. Other and moreover So long as there was no violence and I know there were instances of violence that should be punished that I don't have any complaints about, but partially if this is only related to what you say, I'm not sure that this is how a university or relations between students at the university ought to be conducted. If you're not going to be able to say what you think at the university, then what else are you going to say? Are you going be able say it? So this is a much more complicated matter than it is being presented. And as I said, my view or based on what I follow that is happening at colleges, this is being used as an excuse. As somebody I think Peter Beinhart wrote today in the New York Times. He says, No, no, no. It is not really about protecting Jewish students, but it is protecting a certain... Type of Jewish students, and that means it's a political decision, the complaints, legitimate complaints, perhaps, of some students to use those against university administrations or universities themselves that the Trump administration seems to be targeting.

Andrew Keen: Yeah, it's interesting you bring up Beinart. He was on the show a year or two ago. I think he notes that, I mean, I don't want to put words into his mouth, but he seems to be suggesting that Jews now have a responsibility almost to speak out, not just obviously about what's happening in the U.S., but certainly about what is happening in Gaza. I'm not sure what you think on.

Soli Ozel: He just published a book, he just published the book being Jewish in the US after Gaza or something along those lines. He represents a certain way of thinking about what had happened in Gaza, I mean what had happened to Israel with the attack of Hamas and what had happened afterwards, whether or not he represents the majority. Do you agree with him? I happen to be. I happen to be sympathetic to his views. And especially when you read the book at the beginning, it says, look, he's a believer. Believer meaning he is a practicing Jew. So this is not really a question about his own Jewishness, but how he understands what being a Jew actually means. And from that perspective, putting a lot of accent to the moral aspects of Jewish history and Jewish theological and secular thinking, He is rebelling, if you will, against this way of manipulative use. On the part of some Jewish organizations as well of what had gone on and this is this he sees as a along with others actually he also sees this as a threat to Jewish presence in the United States. You know there is a simultaneous increase in in anti-semitism. And some people argue that this has begun even before October 7. Let us not forget Charlottesville when the crowds that were deemed to be nice people were chanting, Jews will not replace us, and those people are still around. Yeah, a lot of them went to jail.

Andrew Keen: Yeah, I mean Trump seemed to have pardoned some of them. And Solly, what do you make of quote-unquote the resistance to Trump in the U.S.? You're a longtime observer of authoritarianism, both personally and in political science terms. One of the headlines the last few days is about the elite universities forming a private collective to resist the Trump administration. Is this for real and is it new? Should we admire the universities or have they been forced into this position?

Soli Ozel: Well, I mean, look, you started your talk with the CNN title. Yeah, about the brand, the tarnishing of the U.S. Whatever the CNN stands for. The thing is, there is no question that what is happening today and what has been happening in my judgment over the last two years, particularly on the issue of Gaza, I would not... Exonerate the Biden administration and the way it actually managed its policy vis-a-vis that conflict. There is, of course, a reflection on American policy vis a vis that particular problem and with the Trump administration and 100 days of storm, if you will, around the world, there is a shift in the way people look at the United States. I think it is not a very favorable shift in terms of how people view and understand the United States. Now, that particular thing, the colleges coming together, institutions in the United States where the Americans are very proud of their Madisonian institutions, they believe that that was there. Uh, if you will, insurance policy against an authoritarian drift in their system. Those institutions, both public institutions and private institutions actually proved to be paper tigers. I mean, look at corporations that caved in, look at law firms that arcade that have caved in, Look at Columbia university being, if you will the most egregious example of caving in and plus still not getting the money or not actually stopping the demands that are made on it. So Harvard after equivocating on this finally came up with a response and decided to take the risk of losing massive sums of grants from the federal government. And in fact, it's even suing. The Trump administration for withholding the money that was supposed to go to them. And I guess there is an awakening and the other colleges in order to protect freedom of expression, in order, to protect the independence of higher education in this country, which has been sacrosanct, which is why a lot of people from all around the world, students... Including you and I, right? I mean, that's why we... Yeah, exactly. By the way, it's anywhere between $44 and $50 billion worth of business as well. Then it is there finally coming together, because if you don't hang together, you'll hang separately, is a good American expression that I like. And then trying to defend themselves. And I think this Harvard slope suit, the case of Harvard, is going to be like the Stokes trial of the 1920s on evolution. It's going to be a very similar case, I believe, and it may determine how American democracy goes from now.

Andrew Keen: Interesting. You introduced me to Ece Temelkuren, another of your friends from someone who no longer lives in Turkey. She's a very influential Turkish columnist, polemicist. She wrote a famous book, How to Lose a Country. She and you have often compared Turkey. With the rest of the world suggesting that what you're going through in Turkey is the kind of canary in the coal mine for the rest the world. You just came out with a piece, Turkey, a crisis of legitimacy, a massive social mobilization and regional power. I want to get to the details of what's happening in Turkey first. But like Ece, do you see Turkey as the kind of canary and the coalmine that you got into this first? You're kind of leading the narrative of how to address authoritarianism in the 25th century.

Soli Ozel: I don't think Turkey was the first one. I think the first one was Hugo Chavez. And then others followed. Turkey certainly is a prominent one. But you know, you and I did other programs and in an earlier era, about 15 years ago. Turkey was actually doing fine. I mean, it was a candidate for membership, still presumably, formally, a candidate for membership in the European Union, but at the time when that thing was alive. Turkey did, I mean, the AKP government or Erdogan as prime minister did a lot of things that were going in the right direction. They certainly demilitarized Turkish politics, but increasingly as they consolidated themselves in power, they moved in a more authoritarian path. And of course, after the coup attempt in 2016 on the 15th of July, that trend towards authoritarianism had been exacerbated and but with the help of a very sui generis if you will unaccountable presidential system we are we find ourselves where we are but The thing is what has been missed out by many abroad was that there was also a very strong resistance that had remained actually unbowing for a long time. And Istanbul, which is, of course, almost a fifth of Turkey's population, 32 percent of its economy, and that's where the pulse of the country actually beats, since 2017 did not vote for Mr Erdogan. I mean, referendum, general election, municipal election. It hasn't, it hasn't. And that is that really, it really represents the future. And today, the disenchantment or discontent has now become much broader, much more broadly based because conservative Anatolia is also now feeling the biting of the economy. And this sense of justice in the country has been severely damaged. And That's what I think explains. The kinds of reaction we had throughout the country to the first arrest and then incarceration of the very popular mayor of Istanbul who is a national figure and who was seen as the main contender for the presidency in the elections that are scheduled to take place in.

Andrew Keen: Yeah, and I want to talk more about Turkey's opposition and an interesting New York Times editorial. But before we get there, Soli, you mentioned that the original model was Chavez in Venezuela, of course, who's always considered a leftist populist, whereas Erdogan, Trump, etc., and maybe Netanyahu are considered populists of the right. Is that a useful? Bifurcation in ideological terms or a populist populism that the idea of Chavez being different from Trump because one's on the left and right is really a 20th century mistake or a way of thinking about the 21st century using 20th-century terms.

Soli Ozel: Okay, I mean the ideological proclivities do make a difference perhaps, but at the end of the day, what all these populist movements represent is the coming of age or is the coming to power of country elites. Suggests claiming to represent the popular classes whom they say and who are deprived of. Uh, benefits of holding power economically or politically, but once they get established in power and with the authoritarian tilt doesn't really make a distinction in terms of right or wrong. I mean, is Maduro the successor to Chavez a rightist or a leftist? I mean does it really make a difference whether he calls himself a leftists or a rightists? I is unaccountable, is authoritarian. He loses elections and then he claims that he wins these elections and so the ideology that purportedly brought them to power becomes a fig leaf, if you will, justification and maybe the language that they use in order to justify the existing authoritarianism. In that sense, I don't think it makes a difference. Maybe initially it could have made a difference, We have seen populist leaders. Different type of populism perhaps in Latin America. For instance, the Peruvian military was supposed to be very leftist, whereas the Chilean or the Brazilian or the Argentinian or the Uruguayan militaries were very right-wing supported by the church itself. Nicaragua was supposed to be very Leftist, right? They had a revolution, the Sandinista revolution. And look at Daniel Ortega today, does it really matter that he claims himself to be a man of the left? I mean, He runs a family business in Nicaragua. And so all those people who were so very excited about the Nicaraguan Revolution some 45 years ago must be extraordinarily disappointed. I mean, of course, I was also there as a student and wondering what was going to happen in Nicaragua, feeling good about it and all that. And that turned out to be an awful dictatorship itself.

Andrew Keen: Yeah, and on this sense, I think you're on the same page as our mutual friend, Moises Naim, who wrote a very influential book a couple of years ago. He's been on the show many times about learning all this from the Latin American playbook because of his experience in Venezuela. He has a front row on this. Solly, is there one? On this, I mean, as I said, you just come out with a piece on the current situation in Turkey and talk a little bit more detail, but is America a few stops behind Turkey? I mean you mentioned that in Turkey now everyone, not just the urban elites in Istanbul, but everyone in the country is beginning to experience the economic decline and consequences of failed policies. A lot of people are predicting the same of Trump's America in the next year or two. Is there just one route in this journey? Is there's just one rail line?

Soli Ozel: Like by what the root of established wow a root in the sense of you

Andrew Keen: Erdogan or Trump, they come in, they tell lots of lies, they promise a lot of stuff, and then ultimately they can't deliver. Whatever they're promising, the reverse often happens. The people they're supposed to be representing are actually victims of their policies. We're seeing it in America with the consequences of the tariff stuff, of inflation and rise of unemployment and the consequences higher prices. It has something similar. I think of it as the Liz Truss effect, in the sense that the markets ultimately are the truth. And Erdogan, I know, fought the markets and lost a few years ago in Turkey too.

Soli Ozel: There was an article last week in Financial Times Weekend Edition, Mr. Trump versus Mr. Market. Trump versus, Mr. Market. Look, first of all, I mean, in establishing a system, the Orban's or Modi's, they all follow, and it's all in Ece's book, of course. You have to control the judiciary, you have to control the media, and then all the institutions. Gradually become under your thumb. And then the way out of it is for first of all, of course, economic problems, economic pain, obviously makes people uncomfortable, but it will have to be combined with the lack of legitimacy, if you will. And that is, I don't think it's right, it's there for in the United States as of yet, but the shock has been so. Robust, if you will, that the reaction to Trump is also rising in a very short period, in a lot shorter period of time than it did in other parts of the world. But economic conditions, the fact that they worsen, is an important matter. But there are other conditions that need to be fulfilled. One of those I would think is absolutely the presence of a political leader that defies the ones in power. And I think when I look at the American scene today, one of the problems that may, one of problems that the political system seems to have, which of course, no matter how economically damaging the Trump administration may be, may not lead to an objection to it. To a loss of power in the midterms to begin with, is lack of leadership in the Democratic Party and lack of a clear perspective that they can share or program that they present to the public at large. Without that, the ones that are in power hold a lot of cards. I mean, it took Turkey about... 18 years after the AKP came to power to finally have potential leaders, and only in 2024 did it become very apparent that now Turkey had more than one leader that could actually challenge Erdogan, and that they also had, if not to support the belief in the public, that they could also run the country. Because if the public does not believe that you are competent enough to manage the affairs of the state or to run the country, they will not vote for you. And leadership truly is an extraordinarily important factor in having democratic change in such systems, what we call electoral authoritarian.

Andrew Keen: So what's happened in Turkey in terms of the opposition? The mayor of Istanbul has emerged as a leader. There's an attempt to put him in jail. You talk about the need for an opposition. Is he an ideological figure or just simply younger, more charismatic? More attractive on the media. What do you need and what is missing in the US and what do you have in Turkey? Why are you a couple of chapters ahead on this?

Soli Ozel: Well, it was a couple of chapters ahead because we have had the same government or the same ruler for 22 years now.

Andrew Keen: And Imamo, I wanted you to pronounce it, Sali, because my Turkish is dreadful. It's worse than most of the other.

Soli Ozel: He is the mayor of Istanbul who is now in jail and whose diploma was annulled by the university which actually gave him the diploma and the reason why that is important is if you want to run for president in Turkey, you've got to have a college degree. So that's how it all started. And then he was charged with corruption and terrorism. And he's put in zero. Oh, it's terrorism. There was.

Andrew Keen: It's terrorism, they always throw the terrorist bit in, don't they, Simon?

Soli Ozel: Yeah, but that dossier is, for the moment, pending. It has not been closed, but it is pending. Anyway, he is young, but his major power is that he can touch all segments of society, conservative, nationalist, leftist. And that's what makes people compare him also with Erdogan who also had a touch of appealing to different segments of the population. But of course, he's secular. He's not ideological, he's a practical man. And Istanbul's population is about anywhere between 16 and 18 million people. It's larger than many countries in Europe. And to manage a city like Istanbul requires really good managerial skills. And Imamoglu managed this in spite of the fact that central government cut its resources, made sure that there was obstruction in every step that he wanted to take, and did not help him a bit. And that still was continuing. Still, he won once. Then there was a repeat election. He won again. And this time around, he one with a landslide, 54% against 44% of his opponent, which had all the

Andrew Keen: So the way you're presenting him, is he running as a technocrat or is he running as a celebrity?

Soli Ozel: No, he's running as a politician. He's running a politician, he is a popular politician. Maybe you can see tinges of populism in him as well, but... He is what, again, what I think his incarceration having prompted such a wide ranging segments of population really kind of rebelling against this incarceration has to do with the fact that he has resonance in Anatolia. Because he does not scare conservative people. He aspires the youth because he speaks to them directly and he actually made promises to them in Istanbul that he kept, he made their lives easier. And he's been very creative in helping the poorer segments of Istanbul with a variety of programs. And he has done this without really being terribly pushing. So, I mean, I think I sense that the country sees him as its next ruler. And so to attack him was basically tampering with the verdict of the ballot box. That's, I, think how the Turkish public interpreted it. And for good historical reasons, the ballot box is really pretty sacred in Turkey. We usually have upwards of 80% of participation in the election.

Andrew Keen: And they're relatively, I mean, not just free, but the results are relatively honest. Yeah, there was an interesting New York Times editorial a couple of days ago. I sent it over. I'm sure you'd read it anyway. Turkey's people are resisting autocracy. They deserve more than silence. I mean from Trump, who has very peculiar relations, he has peculiar relations with everyone, but particularly it seems with Turkey does, in your view, does Turkey needs or the resistance or the mayor of Istanbul this issue, need more support from the US? Would it make any difference?

Soli Ozel: Well, first of all, the current American administration didn't seem to particularly care that the arrest and incarceration of the mayor of Istanbul was a bit, to say the least, was awkward and certainly not very legal. I mean, Mario Rubio said, Marco Rubio said that he had concerns. But Mr. Witkoff, in the middle of demonstrations that were shaking the country, Mr. Witkof said it to Tucker Carlson's show that there were very wonderful news coming out of Turkey. And of course, President Trump praised Erdogan several times. They've been on the phone, I think, five times. And he praised Erdogan in front of Bibi Netanyahu, which obviously Bibi Netanyah did not particularly appreciate either. So obviously the American administration likes Mr. Erdogans and will support him. And whatever the Turkish public may or may not want, I don't think is of great interest to

Andrew Keen: What about the international dimension, sorry, Putin, the Ukrainian war? How does that play out in terms of the narrative unfolding in Turkey?

Soli Ozel: Well, first of all, of course, when the Assad regime fell,

Andrew Keen: Right, and as that of course. And Syria of course as well posts that.

Soli Ozel: Yeah, I mean, look, Turkey is in the middle of two. War zones, no? Syria was one and the Ukraine is the other. And so when the regime fell and it was brought down by groups that were protected by Turkey in Idlib province of Syria. Everybody argued, and I think not wrongly, that Turkey would have a lot of say over the future of Syria. And I think it will. First of all, Turkey has about 600 miles or 911 kilometer border with Syria and the historical relations.

Andrew Keen: And lots of Syrian refugees, of course.

Soli Ozel: At the peak, there were about 4 million, I think it's now going down. President Erdogan said that about 200,000 already went back since the overthrow of the regime. And then of course, to the north, there is Ukraine, Russia. And of course this elevates Turkey's strategic importance or geopolitical importance. Another issue that raises Turkish geopolitical importance is, of course, the gradual withdrawal of the United States from providing security to Europe under the umbrella of NATO, North Atlantic Alliance. And as the Europeans are being forced to fetch for themselves for their security, non-EU members of NATO such as Britain, Norway, Turkey, their importance becomes more accentuated as well. And so Turkey and the European Union were in the process of at least somewhat normalizing their relations and their dialog. So what happened domestically, therefore, did not get much of a reaction from the EU, which is supposed to be this paragon of rights and liberties and all that. But But it also left Turkey in a game in an awkward situation, I would think, because things could have gone much, much better. The rapprochement with the European Union could have moved a lot more rapidly, I will think. But geopolitical advantages are there. Obviously, the Americans care a lot for it. And whatever it is that they're negotiating with the Turkish government, we will soon find out. It is a... It is a country that would help stabilize Syria. And that's what President Trump also said, that he would adjudicate between Israel and Turkey over Syria, because these two countries which have been politically at odds, but strategically usually in very good terms. Whether or not the, so to avoid a clash between the two in Syria was important for him. So Turkey's international situation will continue to be important, but I think without the developments domestically, Turkey's position and profile would have been much more solid.

Andrew Keen: Comparing US and Turkey, the US military has never participated, at least overtly, in politics, whereas the Turkish military, of course, has historically. Where's the Turkish Military on this? What are they thinking about these imprisonments and the increasing unpopularity of the current regime?

Soli Ozel: I think the demilitarization of the Turkish political system was accomplished by the end of the 2000s, so I don't think anybody knows what the military thinks and I'm not sure that anybody really wonders what the army thinks. I think Erdogan has certainly on the top echelons of the military, it has full control. Whether or not the cadets in the Turkish military are lower echelons. Do have political views at odds with that of the government that is not visible. And I don't think the Turkish military should be designing or defining our political system. We have an electorate. We do have a fairly, how shall I say, a public that is fairly attuned to its own rights. And believes certainly in the sanctity of the ballot box, it's been resisting for quite some time and it is defying the authorities and we should let that take its course. I don't think we need the military to do it.

Andrew Keen: Finally, Soli, you've been very generous with your time from Vienna. It's late afternoon there. Let's end where we began with this supposed tarnishing of the U.S. Brand. As we noted earlier, you and I have invested our lives, if for better or worse, in the U S brand. We've always been critical, but we've also been believers in this. It's also important in this brand.

Soli Ozel: It is an important grant.

Andrew Keen: So how do we, and I don't like this term, maybe there is a better term, brands suggest marketing, something not real, but there is something real about the US. How do we re-establish, or I don't know what the word is, a polish rather than tarnish the US brand? What needs to happen in the U.S.

Soli Ozel: Well, I think we will first have to see the reinvigoration of institutions in the United States that have been assaulted. That's why I think the Harvard case... Yeah, and I love you.

Andrew Keen: Yeah, and I love your idea of comparing it to the Scopes trial of 1926. We probably should do a whole show on that, it's fascinating idea.

Soli Ozel: Okay, and then the Democratic Party will have to get its act together. I don't know how long it will take for them to get their act together, they have not been very...

Andrew Keen: Clever. But some Democrats will say, well, there's more than one party. The Sanders AOC wing has done its job. People like Gavin Newsom are trying to do their job. I mean, you can't have an official party. There's gonna be a debate. There already is a debate within the party between the left and the right.

Soli Ozel: The thing is, debates can be endless, and I don't think there is time for that. First of all, I think the decentralized nature of American governance is also an advantage. And I think that the assault has been so forceful that everybody has woken up to it. It could have been the frog method, you know, that is... Yeah, the boiling in the hot water. So, already people have begun to jump and that is good, that's a sign of vitality. And therefore, I think in due time, things will be evolving in a different direction. But, for populist or authoritarian inclined populist regimes, control of the institutions is very important, so you've got to be alert. And what I discovered, studying these things and looking at the practice. Executive power is a lot of power. So separation of powers is fine and good, but the thing is executive power is really very... Prominent and the legislature, especially in this particular case with the Republican party that has become the instrument of President Trump, and the judiciary which resists but its power is limited. I mean, what do you do when a court decision is not abided by the administration? You cannot send the police to the White House.

Andrew Keen: Well, you might have to, that's why I asked the military question.

Soli Ozel: Well, it's not up to the military to do this, somehow it will have to be resolved within the civilian democratic system, no matter where. Yes, the decks are stacked against the opposition in most of these cases, but then you'll have to fight. And I think a lot hinges on how corporations are going to react from now on. They have bet on Trump, and I suppose that many of them are regretting because of the tariffs. I just was at a conference, and there was a German business person who said that he has a factory in Germany and a factory in Ohio. And he told me that within three months there would not be any of the goods that he produces on the shelves because of tariffs. Once this begins to hit, then you may see a different dynamic in the country as well, unless the administration takes a U-turn. But if it does take a U turn, it will also have weakened itself, both domestically and internationally.

Andrew Keen: Yeah, certainly, to put it mildly. Well, as we noted, Soli, what's real is economics. The rest is perhaps froth or lies or propaganda.

Soli Ozel: It's a necessary condition. Without that deteriorating, you really cannot get things on values done.

Andrew Keen: In other words, Marx was right, but perhaps in a slightly different context. We're not going to get into Marx today, Soli, we're going to get you back on the show. Cause I love that comparison with the current, the Harvard Trump legal thing, comparing it to Scopes. I think I hadn't thought of that. It's a very interesting idea. Keep well, keep safe, keep telling the truth from Central Europe and Turkey. As always, Solia, it's an honor to have you on the show. Thank you so much.

Soli Ozel: Thank you, Andrew, for having me.

Keen On America is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit keenon.substack.com/subscribe