Math, Statistics and Probabilistic Thinking

How mathematical rigor, probabilistic thinking, and family priorities shape a young investor's approach to finding overlooked opportunities.

The episode is sponsored by TenzingMEMO — the AI-powered market intelligence platform I use daily for smarter company analysis. Code BILLIONS gets you an extended trial + 10% off.

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David Diranko is a 29-year-old German mathematician turned professional value investor who uniquely combines statistical rigor with contrarian small-cap investing, building his investment advisory firm Diranko Capital while sharing research through his newsletter Contrarian Cash Flows.

3:00 - David explains his unconventional journey from mathematics to IBM data scientist to full-time value investor, detailing how he worked 40+ hours at IBM while spending another 30 hours weekly on investing before making the leap to launch Duranko Capital.

6:00 - Drawing parallels between Ben Graham as "the original data scientist" during the Great Depression, David discusses how mathematical thinking enhances investment analysis through probabilistic frameworks and viewing intrinsic value as a range rather than a single number.

10:00 - The decision to share research publicly through Contrarian Cash Flows despite initial hesitation about giving away "edge," leading to deeper thinking, network effects, and unexpected client relationships—though David candidly admits he's still learning to balance transparency with proprietary insights.

20:00 - Europe's structural advantages for small-cap investors: fragmented markets across 27 countries, language barriers creating information asymmetries, and limited institutional coverage enabling patient capital to exploit mispricing—with David emphasizing the importance of investing in quality businesses over statistical cheapness.

35:00 - AI's transformative impact on investing: from automating routine tasks to potentially replacing 50% of analyst work, while emphasizing that relationship-building, creative thinking, and probabilistic judgment remain distinctly human advantages that AI cannot replicate.

50:00 - Balancing entrepreneurship with young family life (two kids under three), David shares his contrarian view that starting families early while building careers creates stronger bonds through shared struggle, rejecting the common narrative of family as a "reward" for career success.

1:02:00 - Closing wisdom on finding meaning beyond financial returns, referencing Charlie Munger's caution that a life purely about buying securities wouldn't be enough—investing must serve a deeper purpose than accumulation.

Podcast Program – Disclosure Statement

Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC is a registered investment adviser and the opinions expressed by the Firm’s employees and podcast guests on this show are their own and do not reflect the opinions of Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC. All statements and opinions expressed are based upon information considered reliable although it should not be relied upon as such. Any statements or opinions are subject to change without notice.

Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.