Afford Anything cover image

The Psychology of Money, with Morgan Housel

Afford Anything

The Purpose of the Margin of Safety Is to Render the Forecast Unusual

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There's a famous quote that i absolutely love from the legendary investor benjamin graham, that says, the purpose of the margin of safety is to render the forecast unnecessary. If we are rendering forecasts unnecessarily, then by definition, we are not getting too attached to forecasts. We are substituting forecasts for a range of expectations and for probablistic thinking. And so that's k take away number seven, don't get too attached to a forecast. Finally, qtake away number eight, tail risks, which are risks of low probability and high impact. Those tail risks move the world.

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